A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
